The XEC Variant Poised to Overtake KP.3.1.1 as Dominant COVID Variant by November. Increasing Hospitalizations in the U.K.- 3 Hospitals Reinstate Masking
The XEC Variant Poised to Overtake KP.3.1.1 as Dominant COVID Variant by November. Increasing Hospitalizations in the U.K.- 3 Hospitals Reinstate Masking
Do we know if XEC will be able to reinfect people who have recovered from KP. 3.1.1? It seems to me this will determine how bad the wave will be. Love this Substack!
Thanks for the compliment! We do not know for sure because there haven't been any studies released on XEC. We do know that the XEC variant is projected to be at 50% to 60% prevalence in the U.S. between Nov. 1 and Nov. 15. The fact that it is increasing at this pace in a world dominated by the KP.3.1.1 variant suggests it can evade the immune response to KP.3.1.1 and earlier variants.
Hi TACT...Here's a question which I don't expect you to have an answer for, but is interesting to think about. If one makes the not unreasonable assumption that vaccination promotes viral evolution from the quasi-species swarm, is there a variant out there now that will be selected for OR will there be one that has yet to emerge from the pack?
Do we know if XEC will be able to reinfect people who have recovered from KP. 3.1.1? It seems to me this will determine how bad the wave will be. Love this Substack!
Thanks for the compliment! We do not know for sure because there haven't been any studies released on XEC. We do know that the XEC variant is projected to be at 50% to 60% prevalence in the U.S. between Nov. 1 and Nov. 15. The fact that it is increasing at this pace in a world dominated by the KP.3.1.1 variant suggests it can evade the immune response to KP.3.1.1 and earlier variants.
TACT...Well, a hat tip to your May 2024 Summer Forecast. I would say you nailed that impressively.
So, it appears you are tentatively forecasting a winter surge lift-off around late October?
I eagerly await your Winter 24/25 forecast, despite the fact that it likely won't be pretty.
Hi TACT...Here's a question which I don't expect you to have an answer for, but is interesting to think about. If one makes the not unreasonable assumption that vaccination promotes viral evolution from the quasi-species swarm, is there a variant out there now that will be selected for OR will there be one that has yet to emerge from the pack?