Hi TACT...Don't know if you'll see this comment, but here goes...
I was just looking again at the graph of confirmed UK Covid hospitalizations.
Note that there is a peak in early May followed by a trough in early June before hospitalizations start rising again. 30 days peak to valley. THAT is pretty ominous. Perhaps this is relentless immune evasion or shattered immunity generally, but it's not good.
It occurred to me as I read your report that we need an immune assessment of the population as a whole. Pick a representative sample of people and do a thorough immunology work-up on everyone in that sample. We are unlikely to get such a study, but I think it is needed.
I also would like to point to this study published in the Lancet, on KP.2.
"KP.2 shows the most significant resistance to the sera of monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccinee without infection (3.1-fold) as well as those who with infection (1.8-fold). Altogether, these results suggest that the increased immune resistance ability of KP.2 partially contributes to the higher Re more than previous variants including JN.1." (May 20, 2024)
"Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 KP.2 variant"
First JN.1.11.1 was able to evade JN.1 immune response. KP.2 took that even further. KP.3 was able to outcompete KP.2 variants. Now KP.3.1.1 takes that even further. On the heals of KP.3.1.1 are KP.3.1.1.1 and KP.3.3.1. Where will these variants be in October and November?
The vaccines should be attempting to target more than just the S protein. We have known this since 2020 but I have yet to see a trial using a vaccine that targets the N and S protein for example.
The mutation in the ORF3A of KP.3.3.1 is very concerning. The vaccine strategy of targeting specific mutations in the S protein is failing to prevent infection or Long COVID, nor is it produced fast enough to remain relevant as the pace of evolution continues to increase, far outpacing the targeted vaccines.
Do you understand what I am pointing out or do you still question the validity of the statements?
I’m not questioning you on vaccines not being able to neutralize infections, or the fact that we need better vaccines and other mitigations, but I am questioning your statement that the vaccines will be “irrelevant or potentially harmful” for folks who have already been infected.
We continue to see in studies that vaccines reduce Covid risks. Here is one of the most recent on long COVID risk.
So even if the vaccines are too late for the target variant, they will still give some protection against long COVID and bodily damage for the next variant. That’s evident in the research you provided as well.
In summary, don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.
Keeping in mind that we are still in July, think about the distance the virus has evolved since the W.H.O. made the recommendation that the vaccines targeting JN.1, like Novavax is doing, to the KP.2 target that the CDC approved, to now beyond KP.3, which could evade the JN.1 immune response, to the KP.3.1.1 variant, which is short for JN.1.11.1.3.1.1. The KP.3.1.1 variant of COVID-19 has a much higher ability to infect cells than the KP.3 variant. Researchers tested how well different sera (blood samples) could neutralize KP.3.1.1. They used:
Sera from people who had breakthrough infections (BTI) with the XBB.1.5 or EG.5 variants.
Sera from people who had infections with the HK.3 or JN.1 variants.
Sera from people vaccinated with the monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccine.
The results showed that the sera's ability to neutralize KP.3.1.1 was significantly lower compared to KP.3. Specifically, the 50% neutralization titer (NT50), which measures how well the sera can neutralize the virus, was 1.4-1.6 times lower for KP.3.1.1 in all groups. For those vaccinated with XBB.1.5, the NT50 was 1.3 times lower against KP.3.1.1 compared to KP.3. This means that KP.3.1.1 can more effectively evade the immune response than KP.3.
Overall, KP.3.1.1 not only infects more efficiently but also evades neutralization better than KP.3. This aligns with findings that JN.1 subvariants with the S:S31 del, like KP.2.3 and LB.1, show enhanced infectivity and immune evasion compared to other JN.1 subvariants without the S31 deletion (examples, JN.1, KP.2, KP.3) highlighting the evolutionary significance of S:S31del in the JN.1 lineages.
In summary, the XBB.1.5 vaccine is less effective against the KP.3.1.1 variant, meaning that while it still offers some protection, its ability to neutralize the virus is significantly reduced. We already have KP.3.1.1.1 and KP.3.3.1 with even higher growth advantages following KP.3.1.1. How much further will the virus have evolved by October or November when the JN.1 and KP.2 targeted vaccines become available? Given the current level of mitigation efforts, nearly everyone will have already been infected with a KP.3 sub-variant.
This is all pointing to the fact that without mitigation, the virus is evolving at an increasing rate of speed and that most people are exposed to much more evolved versions of the virus before the vaccines come out. We know that since the virus evades the antibodies to the vaccines, then it can still infect people, keep spreading and it can still lead to Long COVID. It may be an inconvenient truth but it is reality. As stated in the post, if you are someone who manages to avoid exposure for 7 to 10 months, then the vaccines will likely offer the benefit of boosting the memory T-cells, helping to prevent severe disease and death.
"Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 KP.3.1.1 variant" July 17, 2024
Hi TACT...Don't know if you'll see this comment, but here goes...
I was just looking again at the graph of confirmed UK Covid hospitalizations.
Note that there is a peak in early May followed by a trough in early June before hospitalizations start rising again. 30 days peak to valley. THAT is pretty ominous. Perhaps this is relentless immune evasion or shattered immunity generally, but it's not good.
Thought I would pass this along, if interested...
https://x.com/CovidSafetyEd/status/1815196831963660656
Thanks for sharing this!
Hi TACT...
It occurred to me as I read your report that we need an immune assessment of the population as a whole. Pick a representative sample of people and do a thorough immunology work-up on everyone in that sample. We are unlikely to get such a study, but I think it is needed.
I like the addition of your international covid tour. Would be great to see France added to this tour. 😀
I’ve commented before (with research) taking issue with your statements around vaccines being “irrelevant or potentially harmful.”
You are not backing up your stance with citations, so I’m not sure how you came to it.
I really love your information otherwise. But I won’t be paying for a subscription anymore.
I also would like to point to this study published in the Lancet, on KP.2.
"KP.2 shows the most significant resistance to the sera of monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccinee without infection (3.1-fold) as well as those who with infection (1.8-fold). Altogether, these results suggest that the increased immune resistance ability of KP.2 partially contributes to the higher Re more than previous variants including JN.1." (May 20, 2024)
"Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 KP.2 variant"
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(24)00298-6/fulltext
First JN.1.11.1 was able to evade JN.1 immune response. KP.2 took that even further. KP.3 was able to outcompete KP.2 variants. Now KP.3.1.1 takes that even further. On the heals of KP.3.1.1 are KP.3.1.1.1 and KP.3.3.1. Where will these variants be in October and November?
The vaccines should be attempting to target more than just the S protein. We have known this since 2020 but I have yet to see a trial using a vaccine that targets the N and S protein for example.
The mutation in the ORF3A of KP.3.3.1 is very concerning. The vaccine strategy of targeting specific mutations in the S protein is failing to prevent infection or Long COVID, nor is it produced fast enough to remain relevant as the pace of evolution continues to increase, far outpacing the targeted vaccines.
Do you understand what I am pointing out or do you still question the validity of the statements?
I’m not questioning you on vaccines not being able to neutralize infections, or the fact that we need better vaccines and other mitigations, but I am questioning your statement that the vaccines will be “irrelevant or potentially harmful” for folks who have already been infected.
We continue to see in studies that vaccines reduce Covid risks. Here is one of the most recent on long COVID risk.
So even if the vaccines are too late for the target variant, they will still give some protection against long COVID and bodily damage for the next variant. That’s evident in the research you provided as well.
In summary, don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2403211
Thanks for reading and thank you for the comment.
Keeping in mind that we are still in July, think about the distance the virus has evolved since the W.H.O. made the recommendation that the vaccines targeting JN.1, like Novavax is doing, to the KP.2 target that the CDC approved, to now beyond KP.3, which could evade the JN.1 immune response, to the KP.3.1.1 variant, which is short for JN.1.11.1.3.1.1. The KP.3.1.1 variant of COVID-19 has a much higher ability to infect cells than the KP.3 variant. Researchers tested how well different sera (blood samples) could neutralize KP.3.1.1. They used:
Sera from people who had breakthrough infections (BTI) with the XBB.1.5 or EG.5 variants.
Sera from people who had infections with the HK.3 or JN.1 variants.
Sera from people vaccinated with the monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccine.
The results showed that the sera's ability to neutralize KP.3.1.1 was significantly lower compared to KP.3. Specifically, the 50% neutralization titer (NT50), which measures how well the sera can neutralize the virus, was 1.4-1.6 times lower for KP.3.1.1 in all groups. For those vaccinated with XBB.1.5, the NT50 was 1.3 times lower against KP.3.1.1 compared to KP.3. This means that KP.3.1.1 can more effectively evade the immune response than KP.3.
Overall, KP.3.1.1 not only infects more efficiently but also evades neutralization better than KP.3. This aligns with findings that JN.1 subvariants with the S:S31 del, like KP.2.3 and LB.1, show enhanced infectivity and immune evasion compared to other JN.1 subvariants without the S31 deletion (examples, JN.1, KP.2, KP.3) highlighting the evolutionary significance of S:S31del in the JN.1 lineages.
In summary, the XBB.1.5 vaccine is less effective against the KP.3.1.1 variant, meaning that while it still offers some protection, its ability to neutralize the virus is significantly reduced. We already have KP.3.1.1.1 and KP.3.3.1 with even higher growth advantages following KP.3.1.1. How much further will the virus have evolved by October or November when the JN.1 and KP.2 targeted vaccines become available? Given the current level of mitigation efforts, nearly everyone will have already been infected with a KP.3 sub-variant.
This is all pointing to the fact that without mitigation, the virus is evolving at an increasing rate of speed and that most people are exposed to much more evolved versions of the virus before the vaccines come out. We know that since the virus evades the antibodies to the vaccines, then it can still infect people, keep spreading and it can still lead to Long COVID. It may be an inconvenient truth but it is reality. As stated in the post, if you are someone who manages to avoid exposure for 7 to 10 months, then the vaccines will likely offer the benefit of boosting the memory T-cells, helping to prevent severe disease and death.
"Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 KP.3.1.1 variant" July 17, 2024
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.16.603835v1