COVID Update April 23, 2023: Arcturus (XBB.1.16) Exponential Growth in the U.S./Vancouver Near Level of 1st Omicron Surge/ Hawaii Hospitalizations Increase as XBB.1.16 Spreads
Large Long COVID Study Finds 70% Infected with Omicron Have Felt Long Term Impact
India has limited testing so the daily cases reflect maybe 10% to 20% of the actual numbers. This surge is largely driven by Arcturus (XBB.1.16). If 5% to 10% end up with long-term chronic issues, that's a serious problem. Wastewater shows levels as high as BA.1 in parts of India and now Vancouver (below). If 70% have chronic issues like a study from Hong Kong just found, then we have much larger issues. The latest variants are the most immune evasive and suppressive to date, with growth advantages over XBB.1.5 which already evaded antibodies from BA.5 infections and the bivalent boosters. We got into some of the reasons that Arcturus is looking to be even more immune suppressive than XBB.1.5 in the update from March 18th.
"70% of Hong Kong COVID victims experience long-term after-effects, survey of 10,000 patients finds"
A survey by Chinese University of 10,000 people is said to be Asia’s largest study of those with Long COVID. They surveyed from July to December 2022. 97% of the people surveyed had been infected with the Omicron variant. They found that one in ten suffered from reproductive health and menstrual problems. We highlighted some of the reproductive issues with men, women and babies. A meta analysis involving 12 studies from 12 countries that included 13,136 pregnant women found that COVID infection at any time during pregnancy increases the risk of maternal death, severe maternal morbidities and neonatal morbidity. (12)
We still have no idea how repeated infections will impact the reproductive health of children and teens as they mature. Given what we already know, we should be doing everything we can to reduce children’s exposure to COVID.
Vancouver Wastewater Prevalence
Vancouver is seeing the prevalence of COVID in the wastewater nearing levels not seen since the BA.1, Omicron surge. This wastewater COVID surveillance data was published April 16, with the most recent samples collected April 10th.
Hawaii’s latest wastewater surveillance posted April 11th, is representing samples taken from March 6 to March 28 2023. Looking at the graph below, we can see that XBB.1.16 is increasing the most in Kauai and that Kauai shows the prevalence increasing the most. This is likely to occur everywhere as Arcturus (XBB.1.16) gains momentum.
Hawaii Wastewater Prevalence
Hospitalizations are Increasing in Hawaii
The CDC updated the variant proportions through April 22, 2023. It shows that Arcturus (XBB.1.16) is at about 10% prevalence nationally with some areas as high as 19%. Region 6, which includes Texas and the surrounding states, is showing the highest average with nearly 15% prevalence. That is almost double the 8% reported last week. The pace of spread will likely increase towards the 5 1/2 to 6 day doubling rate seen in India.
CDC Variant Proportions through 4/22/2023
Arcturus (XBB.1.16) is shaded in purple.
Region 6 - Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas
CDC Wastewater Testing
The CDC wastewater testing is showing more areas with an increasing prevalence of COVID.
Please let us know what you are seeing or if you have any other insights or questions.
