Reports from the U.S., Australia, Germany, New Zealand, Spain, Singapore, and the U.K. highlight significant details about the current COVID-19 wave sweeping across these nations.
TACT...So, I'm eagerly awaiting your comments on the likelihood of a summer wave. The situation that presents is quite interesting. In Palo Alto, CA right now, wastewater virus levels are ABOVE the levels experienced with the original Wuhan wave of 2020. But the Center for Disease Circulation indicates that viral wastewater activity nationwide is "MINIMAL". With schools about to close, do you think this will break the chain of transmission? It is certainly an interesting setup.
It looks like schools end for the summer on May 30th in Palo Alto so the prevalence will likely start declining for at least a couple weeks but I do expect the prevalence to start increasing again as summer camps, summer school get underway. The various events will cause spikes but the underlying increase will be driven by transmission between children at the various summer activities and homes. That will increase until late August. The KP.2 and KP.3 variants will likely drive the prevalence much higher than last year. It may go twice as high. More people will have symptoms, but many won't. The immune evasion and suppression is very high with these variants. Less initial symptoms and more likely to persist. Symptoms from secondary infections may be the first symptoms many people have to show that they have a current infection or recently had an infection.
Unfortunately, this is a big problem. An infection with limited symptoms could shred your immune system, but you wouldn't know it. If you ask your Doctor to run an immune subpanel, the Doctor will generally not order it feeling it is medically unnecessary (and it is an expensive test). (I asked for such a test, and was turned down)
I guess whole blood w/differential might give you a clue, but it is not as comprehensive a test as the immune subpanel.
I guess the new variants KP.2 and KP.3will require stronger measures to hide the infection, illness and death data :-(
TACT...So, I'm eagerly awaiting your comments on the likelihood of a summer wave. The situation that presents is quite interesting. In Palo Alto, CA right now, wastewater virus levels are ABOVE the levels experienced with the original Wuhan wave of 2020. But the Center for Disease Circulation indicates that viral wastewater activity nationwide is "MINIMAL". With schools about to close, do you think this will break the chain of transmission? It is certainly an interesting setup.
It looks like schools end for the summer on May 30th in Palo Alto so the prevalence will likely start declining for at least a couple weeks but I do expect the prevalence to start increasing again as summer camps, summer school get underway. The various events will cause spikes but the underlying increase will be driven by transmission between children at the various summer activities and homes. That will increase until late August. The KP.2 and KP.3 variants will likely drive the prevalence much higher than last year. It may go twice as high. More people will have symptoms, but many won't. The immune evasion and suppression is very high with these variants. Less initial symptoms and more likely to persist. Symptoms from secondary infections may be the first symptoms many people have to show that they have a current infection or recently had an infection.
Unfortunately, this is a big problem. An infection with limited symptoms could shred your immune system, but you wouldn't know it. If you ask your Doctor to run an immune subpanel, the Doctor will generally not order it feeling it is medically unnecessary (and it is an expensive test). (I asked for such a test, and was turned down)
I guess whole blood w/differential might give you a clue, but it is not as comprehensive a test as the immune subpanel.
FYI...(regarding CDC datasets)
https://x.com/maolesen/status/1793062410837754020
The word 'nonclinical' in the Novavax press release is doing a lot of work in this sentence.
Wow...I didn't think there was anyone more pessimistic than me, but Dr. Hirschson might have taken the lead.
(Not that he's wrong)
https://x.com/richardhirschs1/status/1793623564819874246
(It's laughable to suggest there are only TWO cases in the U.S. There are never only two cockroaches)