COVID: Global Surge: KP Variants are Driving a New Wave of Infections and Hospitalizations Around the World. Can Novavax's JN.1 Fall Booster Help?
Reports from the U.S., Australia, Germany, New Zealand, Spain, Singapore, and the U.K. highlight significant details about the current COVID-19 wave sweeping across these nations.
SARS-CoV-2 is on the rise once again in many areas, as the KP.2 variants and KP.3 variants displace the earlier JN.1 descendants. According to the W.H.O., globally KP.2 increased from 6.4% in week 14 to 9.6% in week 17, but KP.3 rockets past KP.2, making up just 3.5% of cases in week 14 to 20% in week 17.
According to the Wastewater Scan Dashboard, the graph below shows that a number of areas in the U.S. are increasing, with three of the top five in Honolulu, HI.
The following is the list of places represented in the graph above, from the largest increase, working down:
Kailua, Honolulu, HI
Wausau, WI,
Waianae, Honolulu, HI
Honouliuli, Honolulu, HI
Bangor, ME
Boston, MA
Akron, OH
Carmel, IN
Honolulu is showing the most significant increases in COVID-19 cases across multiple sites in the U.S. The remaining sites with notable trends, represented by the lines at the bottom of the graph, are located in California and Florida. We can anticipate these trends to escalate rapidly in the coming weeks.
According to CDC data, the percent change in emergency department visits diagnosed as COVID-19 from the previous week indicates moderate increases in California, Colorado, and New Mexico. Meanwhile, Hawaii, Nebraska, Utah, Vermont, and Wyoming are experiencing substantial increases. Notably, in both Hawaii and California, the rise in ER visits aligns with the increases in wastewater prevalence.
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Increasing COVID Cases, Wastewater Prevalence and Hospitalizations Around the World
Australia
Australia is likely the only country still reporting outbreaks in aged care homes, a crucial metric that reveals the latest variants are breaking through prior immunity and vaccines. Unfortunately, these reported outbreaks probably represent just a fraction of the true number. The consequences are severe, likely leading to the deaths of many residents in these care homes.
Understanding whether staff testing is mandatory would be insightful. Without mandatory testing, we may be seeing only a small percentage of actual infections. Data towards May 24, 2024, indicates a rising prevalence among staff, particularly in Victoria. The troubling reality is that staff are infecting residents. This also suggests a broader outbreak of the KP variants is occurring across Australia.
Germany
The links to the more detailed graphs aren't working; however, the dashboard still provides valuable insights. It shows that wastewater prevalence, hospitalizations, and ICU utilization for COVID-19 are all on the rise.
New Zealand
A report from RNZ on May 20, 2024 says that in the past week, 6,146 new COVID-19 cases have been reported, along with 19 additional deaths attributed to the virus. This marks a significant increase, nearly double last week's figure of 3,922 new cases. As of midnight on Sunday, 242 individuals were hospitalized with COVID-19, according to the Ministry of Health. Last week, the ministry reported 3,922 new cases and 13 deaths.
Singapore and Spain
TACT reported the doubling of cases in Singapore on May 18, 2024, where KP variants make up over two-thirds of cases. Singapore is increasing safety measures in care homes and assisted living facilities.
On May 19, 2024, an article revealed a surge of COVID-19 infections in Spain, leading to an increase in hospitalizations. The positivity rate has tripled in the past week, indicating a sharp increase in cases. This surge strongly suggests that the KP.2 and KP.3 variants, along with their descendants, are successfully evading the immune protection provided by vaccines and previous JN.1 infections.
Sweden
From the first week of May, the wastewater prevalence has been increasing in most of Stockholm and many other areas. We can expect this trend to continue as the KP.2 and KP.3 descendants gain momentum. Like everywhere else, there will be a break from the rapid growth once schools close for the summer break, but they will likely regain traction as
children go to summer camps and schools, while also aided by travel and other smaller and large events.
United Kingdom
We do know that the U.K. has very little testing occurring but despite that the U.K. dashboard is showing a 17% increase in cases from the prior week, through May 8, 2024. They are also reporting a 32% increase in patients admitted to the hospital through April 28, 2024.
The graph below is from a May 2nd update, showing data through week 17. We can see a sharp increase in the SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate.
Novavax Updated JN.1 Targeted Vaccine
Novavax recently announced that their updated JN.1 vaccine induces neutralizing antibodies against multiple variants, but they did not provide supporting data. Many of these variants will likely be extinct by fall. The updated vaccines do not address changes in the N, ORF1a, ORF3a, or ORF9b proteins. For those taking extreme precautions, the vaccine might offer some protection in the fall, but its efficacy will be short-lived and likely significantly reduced. The primary benefit is boosting memory T-cells for 7 to 9 months if uninfected or vaccinated. However, since most people will likely be exposed to and infected by one or more of the KP variants over the summer, an outdated vaccine may offer little benefit to most.
Each new infection increases risks. Unfortunately, many are willingly taking this path, while others are forced due to the lack of mitigation measures to prevent children from being infected in schools. These children then infect their parents and caregivers, who in turn infect coworkers. Hospitals have not adopted airborne infection prevention measures, leading to patients contracting COVID and other airborne pathogens.
On April 26, 2024, Novavax posted on its website the following:
"Our most recent nonclinical data have demonstrated that our JN.1 vaccine candidate induces neutralization responses to JN.1, JN.4, JN.1.11.1, JN.1.7, JN.1.13.1JN.1.16 strains. Our JN.1 vaccine candidate also produces polyfunctional cellular CD4+ T cell responses to a range of omicron strains, including JN.1 and JN.1.11."
Despite these claims, Novavax has not provided the necessary data to support their statements. Even if they could, the virus has already evolved beyond JN.1. The KP.2 variant can evade the immune response to JN.1 and continues to evolve, making further changes to evade the immune system. We discussed these changes in KP.3 on May 13, 2024, when examining “The Rise of KP.3 with the S: Q493E Mutation”.
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I guess the new variants KP.2 and KP.3will require stronger measures to hide the infection, illness and death data :-(
TACT...So, I'm eagerly awaiting your comments on the likelihood of a summer wave. The situation that presents is quite interesting. In Palo Alto, CA right now, wastewater virus levels are ABOVE the levels experienced with the original Wuhan wave of 2020. But the Center for Disease Circulation indicates that viral wastewater activity nationwide is "MINIMAL". With schools about to close, do you think this will break the chain of transmission? It is certainly an interesting setup.