Multiple Variants May Be Driving the Increase in Hospitalizations. An Evolutionary Leap, the Newly Discovered BA.2.86 and What We Know
Will the XBB Targeted Vaccines Be Effective Against New Variants? We uncover some important clues.
The W.H.O. reports that globally new COVID cases increased 80% from July 10 to August 6 2023. U.S. watewater prevalence is the highest its been in six months.
There are several reasons for this increase. Increased air travel, which means flights are full and therefore its more likely that more than one person is contagious. This increases the prevalence in the air, putting more people at risk of infection, particularly since most people have stopped wearing masks, and the CDC removed requirements for a negative test prior to flying.
There is no shortage of large events taking place over the summer. For example, people have been reporting COVID infections after concerts. Bruce Springsteen tested positive in April, and undoubtedly many of his fans did as well. “Two members of K-pop girl group TWICE will not be able to join a concert in Washington after testing positive for Covid-19” “TWICE members were set to hold their “Ready to Be” 5th world tour on June 16 at Tacoma Dome in Tacoma, Washington.”
Yerin Baek, a Korean singer, cancelled a show at New York’s Lincoln Center July 20th after testing positive. She went to Instagram to apologize to her fans, “I’m truly sorry! It was already evening when my COVID test results came back positive. I wanted to show you good things, but because I’m unable to sing right now, I’m no longer able to go.”
Y0-Yo Ma, the renowned cellist cancelled a show set for August 12th in Boston, due to COVID. How many people were positive or got infected at the prior show he did?On Aug. 15th, 2023, this headline appeared, “Lots of Swifties Are Saying They Got COVID After the LA Eras Tour Shows” The article adds a good reminder, “This seems like an ideal opportunity to remind everyone that big events like concerts, even if they’re outdoors, still come with COVID risks. Screaming and/or crying at the top of your lungs for three hours (as you should) is a recipe for potential transmission: Remember that the coronavirus that causes COVID often spreads through respiratory droplets via coughing, sneezing, talking, or, yep, singing” A fan posted on Tiktok, “When you get Covid from ✨the Eras Tour✨ wear your masks pp”
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Speaking of Eras, I mean Eris the COVID variant, not Eras the Taylor Swift tour, EG.5.1 (a.k.a. Eris) also known as XBB.1.9.2.5.1, bearing the S:Q52H and S:F456L substitutions, alongside the S:F486P substitution is currently the dominant variant in the United States.
In a study published Aug, 2021, they say “Spike protein mutations, including S:F486P, affect both tropism (receptor binding) and immune evasion and are therefore the focus of surveillance.” The S:F456L mutation is a convergently growing mutation that has been detected in several subvariants of the omicron variant, such as XBB.1.5, XBB.1.9.1, and XBB.1.9.2. It is thought to have a slight growth advantage and may affect the binding affinity of the spike protein to the ACE2 receptor.
We have a new pre-print on EG.5.1 shared by a TACT community contributor, and it says, “These results suggest that the increased Re of EG.5.1 is attributed to neither increased infectivity nor immune evasion from XBB BTI, and the emergence and spread of EG.5 is driven by the other pressures.” What could be another pressure? Waning immunity among a significant number of people combined with the fact people stopped mitigating exposure allowing people to be exposed to larger viral loads. The more viral particles entering the body, the harder it is to fight. The virus could be replicating faster. Something else to keep in mind is how many mutations EG.5.1 has that the more severe Delta variant had.
How could the new XBB targeted vaccines be impacted?
TACT said when discussing the Novavax XBB vaccine update on Aug 10th, “Unfortunately we can't count on the efficacy being very strong or for it to last very long considering the earliest XBB variants are no longer circulating and the XBB.1.5 variant will likely be pushed out by more dominant variants by this Fall. The variants circulating are already much further evolved with many mutational changes that will undoubtedly impact efficacy.”
In the study on EG.5.1, they say, “These results suggest that XBB BTI cannot efficiently induce antiviral humoral immunity against XBB subvariants.”
In other words, the updated vaccines are unlikely to prevent infection, long term persistent infections or Long COVID.
Sadly, this means that the new vaccines that target XBB variants will be less likely to stop transmission and will require us to use our finite amount of naive T-cells to eliminate the virus from our bodies, also further exhausting circulating T-cells. This process stresses out the thymus, and the virus can potential infect the thymus causing long-term damage to the immune system. This is especially dangerous in young children and older adults.
"These data provide evidence that COVID-19 contributed to the 2022 surge of severe pediatric RSV cases."
COVID weakens the immune systems of children, which increases the odds of severe RSV, flu, pneumonia, strep, and other infections.
Sustained Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Within Schools. COVID-19 Contributed to the 2022 Surge of Severe Pediatric RSV. Children Need Our Protection
"These data provide evidence that COVID-19 contributed to the 2022 surge of severe pediatric RSV cases." Published May 16, 2023, the study assessed whether COVID-19 contributed to the surge in pediatric RSV cases, they leveraged real-time nation-wide US database of electronic health records (EHRs) using time series analysis from January 1, 2010 through January 31, 2023. They found that in November 2022, there was a record increase of 143% compared to expected peak rate.
The vaccines may provide a benefit to anyone that hasn't been infected by any of the XBB variants by boosting T-cell response but it is likely that very few people haven't already been exposed to any of the XBB variants. Most people likely had a least a low dose exposure already, which would have had the same effect. Even that is questionable considering how many mutations have already occurred in the latest variants, distancing itself from earlier XBB variants.
Further, relying on T-cells stresses out the liver and kidneys. The virus will still have time to spread throughout the body, infecting multiple organs, including potentially the brain.
The viral load exposed to will have a direct impact on how serious infections are. Increasing mitigation measures is necessary to limit exposure.
“The paper on EG.5.1 also said, “We showed that EG.5.1 exhibits a higher effective reproduction number compared with XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16, and its parental lineage (XBB.1.9.2), suggesting that EG.5.1 will spread globally and outcompete these XBB subvariants in the near future.” EG.5.1 (Eris) won’t remain the dominant variant for long, because we have many new variants with a greater growth advantage than EG.5.1. Many are sub-variants of EG.5.1, while others are very different.
FL.1.5.1 has become the dominant variant in NY, nicknamed Fornax, is increasing at a faster pace than EG.5.1 in NY and likely all across the U.S. These two variants could be behind the increasing hospitalizations in NY and across the U.S.
BA.2.86, An Evolutionary Leap
COVID just pulled another evolutionary leap by adding an additional 30 mutations with BA.2.86.
Discovered only 5 days ago, it is now list by the W.H.O. as a variant under monitoring. The CDC, notoriously slow in recognizing new variants, mentioned that they are also monitoring this variant. Likely pressured by the W.H.O classification but it is note worthy.
The variant was first sequenced in Israel, but has since been found in Denmark, the U.K., and Michigan in the U.S. The number of mutations and the fact that it has already been found in multiple countries shows it has a clear advantage. It is to early to tell what that it or how the mutations will impact severity, but it is something we will be watching closely.
Immune Suppression and Mood Manipulation
A study from 2021 suggests that COVID can effectively manipulate people into spreading it. At first it doesn’t seem possible but the more you think about it the more you realize that it is manipulating people on multiple levels.
TACT previously posted a view of life from COVIDs perspective to help people gain a better understanding of the virus. Suppressing the immune system is one way to get people to continue moving about spreading the virus while contagious. When people are feeling sick they are alerted to the viruses presence and take precautions to prevent transmission and often don’t have the energy to move even if they wanted to.
COVID's Life in 5 Steps
Step 1: Locate and infect a host.
Step 2: Suppress the immune response so the host doesn't know it's invading, weakening it for several weeks to many months and possibly for life.
By suppressing the immune response, COVID is manipulating us to believe we aren’t sick, thus continue to go about spreading the virus.
“interferon suppression mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 may have the dual beneficial effects to the virus of delaying the immune response allowing the virus to replicate more efficiently, and of countering reduced transmission associated with sickness behavior, by mood manipulation. While virus mediated repression of sickness behavior may be beneficial to the virus in that it may promote transmission, it is expected to be harmful to the host.”
COVID causes cognitive dysfunction. Again it seems unlikely but maybe this makes people more susceptible to the nonsense advice put out by the CDC and the major media outlets. This could be another part of why the majority of people are treating COVID so differently from other dangerous pathogens.
The more we removed protections, the more people that became infected and many end up having persistent infections. The more people with persistent infections, the more likely the virus is to make bigger evolutionary leaps. This makes creating treatments and vaccines that retain efficacy nearly impossible.
Nasal saline spray and rinse clears the nasal passages and also limits the viruses ability to attach to the cells in the nasal passages. Scope has been shown to kill COVID in the mouth and throat. Use for prevention and definitely if infected. Remember that COVID is spread via aerosolized respiratory droplets and that an N-95/KN-95 or P-100 mask will prevent or at least significantly reduce exposure. Surgical and cloth masks will not stop infection but could aid in limiting exposure so some protection is still better than no protection.
We must work Together Against COVID Transmission.
Minor point here...rather than mention 'SCOPE', it might be better to refer to mouthwashes with Cetyl Pyridinium Chloride (CPC). 'Scope' just contains flavorings, I think (??) Scope is simply a 'mouthwash' whereas products containing CPC are often referred to as 'Dental Rinses' because they are Active.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-18367-6