➡️XBB.1.5 expands to 82% of sequenced cases in NYC and 43% across the U.S.
Vaccinated but not boosted within the past six months, then you want to read this.
XBB.1.5 is in 43 percent of sequenced cases nationwide. A big junk of those are in the Mid-Atlantic & North East U.S.
XBB.1.5 is the purple-shaded area. Going west, the majority of cases are BQ.1.1.
In NYC, pictured below, we can see that the XBB.1.5 variant has continued to expand its presence. It now accounts for over 82% of sequenced cases.
NYC hospitalizations peaked on December 30, not after New Year’s events like many people would have imagined.
Nationally, the prevalence of COVID in PCR wastewater testing also started declining prior to January 1, 2022. The solid blue line below represents the prevalence of COVID in the wastewater. The new cases via reported testing are no longer accurate due to the widespread use of at home testing, false negatives, and the thousands that aren’t testing at all because they think they have a cold, allergies, or don’t have any symptoms. The wastewater provides a more precise measurement, allowing for a better understanding of what is going on.
Watching this occur for the third year in a row makes it clearer than ever. I have been studying the rise and fall of cases in countries around the world for three years. Tracking the increases and decreases in relation to the school calendar in countries that have different climates, school calendars, and cultures, that applied nationwide policies to schools regarding COVID. Looking at countries that apply nationwide policies makes tracking the impact of those policies much easier. What that has opened my eyes to, and allowed me to share with confidence, is that hospitalizations, the positivity rate, and the prevalence of wastewater are going down because the exponential growth between schools and homes has hit a fire line. The winter break shut down the biggest driver of exponential growth.
We have to understand that despite the rapid spread that likely occurred over the holidays, it wasn’t more than the momentum of transmission between schools and homes. The exponential growth between schools and homes has most likely already begun again, moving from students to siblings, to new classrooms, back to new homes, and from new siblings to new classrooms filled with new students. Because most children are asymptomatic, the transmission moves under the radar. It will likely take weeks before the trend down in households without kids meets the trend up in households with kids, and that starts influencing older adults in homes without children, who are more likely to get a PCR test at their doctor and more likely to need hospitalization.
If you have been vaccinated but not boosted within the past six months, then you are more likely to be infected with XBB.1.5 than someone recently vaccinated or who has never been vaccinated.
XBB.1.5 is moving through people who are vaccinated but have not been boosted within the past 6 months much faster than recently boosted and unvaccinated people. There are a few reasons for this that I can detail in another post, but it is important to be aware of. If you are considering getting a booster, make sure to read the post on the important considerations.
Outside of the New York metropolitan area, XBB.1.5 is still gaining ground in the rest of the state, albeit at a much slower rate.
This falls in line with the Walgreens data, which breaks down positivity rates by vaccination status. Those who are vaccinated but not boosted within 3 months have the lowest risk, but those who are vaccinated but not boosted after 6 months are much more likely to be infected. Only 15% of the population received a bivalent booster.
If you click on the picture, it will take you to the Walgreens COVID-19 Index. Zoom in on the positivity rate. It also demonstrates that positivity rates began to fall on January 1st, not increasing after the holidays as many in the media and general public would have implied or assumed.
Tips to prevent infection and aid in recovery:
1. Gargling with mouthwash reduced the viral load in your mouth and throat significantly. This speeds up the time to recovery and lowers the odds of transmission to others.
2. Using a saline nasal rinse cleanses the virus out of the nose and makes it harder for it to attach to the ACE-2 receptors in the nose. This also would help prevent transmission by reducing viral load if infected and helps keep COVID from infiltrating the brain through the olfactory mucusa as this study suggests.
3. "Twice-Daily Oral Zinc in the Treatment of Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Randomized Double-Blind Controlled Trial" "In COVID-19 patients, oral zinc can decrease 30-day mortality, the ICU admission rate, and shorten symptom duration."
4. Keep in mind that XBB.1.5 may be more likely to infect people’s eyes. Read more here.
T.A.C.T.
Together Against COVID Transmission