The XEC Variant is Gaining Momentum: What Its Spread May Mean for Symptom Severity, Long COVID, Vaccine Efficacy, and the Future of the Pandemic

Why XEC Could Mark the End of the Omicron Era

"As the KP.3.1.1 wave crests, we can see the next, even more formidable wave approaching. If we don’t alter our approach now, the worst may still be ahead of us."

As of September 21, 2024, XEC prevalence is doubling, approximately, every 9 days, from Sept 3rd, which means it would be nearing or surpassing KP.3.1.1's numbers as they are today, between Nov. 1 and November 15th, the time exponential growth launches into the end of December.

This means it is very likely that we will have a much larger surge of infections going into November and December than the increase already anticipated due to the CDC's negligent guidance to return to work or school 24 hours after being fever-free. This guarantees that millions more people will be sending kids to school and going to work while highly infectious. Infectiousness increases through day 5 regardless of symptoms, and then slowly comes down to no longer being contagious after 8 to 12 days, with some people remaining contagious for around 20 days. If you care about others, please use 2 rapid tests, at least 24 hours apart, to confirm 2 negative tests before returning to school or work, even if it feels or looks like a mild cold.

---

XEC Prevalence Growing

As of today, there are no studies available on how XEC will affect vaccine efficacy or the immune response to KP.3.1.1. However, if XEC outcompetes KP.3.1.1, it likely means it has found a way to evade the immune response. We will dive into the potential reasons for its advantage and what that could signify for symptom severity, increased persistence, and Long COVID.

XEC has more than double the growth advantage of KP.3.1.1, currently the dominant variant, as seen in the latest CDC variant proportions, below. It’s noteworthy, that they do not have XEC listed at all despite at least 124 sequences, and growing. They reported multiple other variants as 0% and “other” as 0%. This raises a troubling question: why would they downplay a potentially more severe variant emerging just before the election? The answer seems clear—it highlights a tendency to prioritize politics over public health. For these agencies to regain credibility and trust, we must move away from political appointments in public health agencies.

Given all we know about the risks of brain damage, kidney damage, heart damage, vascular, neurological, and musculoskeletal dysfunction, including the direct infection of bone marrow, damage to the immune system, and potentially irreversible damage to children’s immune systems, letting this variant and others rip through society is beyond negligent, it's destroying the future for today’s children and all of society.

---

CDC Variant Proportions through 9/14/2024

---

Where is XEC circulating? So far, it has been detected in at least 12 U.S. states and 27 countries, including the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Australia, and more. However, this data reflects the situation from several weeks ago, so the variant has likely spread even further by now. It's important to note that sequencing efforts have been significantly reduced, meaning we have little to no data from many states and countries.

---

XEC currently has the greatest growth advantage according to the Murrell Group, posted on GitHub. These estimates accurately showed KP.3.1.1 with the greatest growth advantage before it became dominant. The large red arrow and XEC appear to be added by Living Safely with COVID, on X. Based on the growth rate that TACT is tracking, this is accurate.

Graph by the Muller Group, showing XEC with the greatest growth advantage.

This article takes a closer look at the changes in the XEC variant that explain its remarkable growth advantage. We’ll also explore how these changes could lead to more severe symptoms, greater immune evasion, persistent infections, and an increase in Long COVID cases. XEC may finally signal the end of the Omicron era, and if this variant continues on its current path, it's something the W.H.O. should seriously consider.

---

If you're able, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription to help sustain this work. Many articles are shared with all subscribers right away, but for more time-intensive research, paid subscribers receive early access until we can expand the base. By becoming a paid subscriber today, you’re helping towards the goal of making every article available to everyone as soon as it's published. Your support truly makes a difference!