COVID Variant Update: Striking Evolution: Unveiling the Rapidly Changing Landscape of COVID-19 Variants
Evolution and Immune Evasion: Impact on Vaccines and Long COVID's Devastating Impact: A Hidden Crisis
Brace yourself: COVID-19 isn't slowing down. New variants are emerging at a terrifying pace, each more adept at evading our immune defenses. Mutations are piling up, not just on the spike protein, but deep within the virus's body. This ominous trend suggests it's evolving to outsmart our vaccines and the natural immunity built from previous infections. The threat of Long COVID looms large, even for those with mild symptoms.
“An updated XBB.1.5 booster significantly increased titers against newer (XBB descendent) variants but not JN.1.” (March 4, 2024)
The graphic above showcases a concerning trend: the continuous addition of new mutations. But this graph only tells part of the story. While it reflects the rising mutation count, it doesn't capture the full picture of how these mutations are transforming the virus. These changes play a critical role in how our immune system recognizes and fights COVID-19.
This adaptability allows the virus to evade and weaken the defenses built from previous infections or vaccinations. The latest descendants of JN.1 are already far removed from JN.1.
KP.1.1 [JN.1.11.1.1.1] has an estimated growth advantage over JN.1 of greater than 200%. KP.2 has an estimated growth advantage of over 300%. KP.2 [JN.1.11.1.2] has a staggering 45 different mutations from XBB.1.5, and accumulated 11 more mutations than JN.1.
KP.2’s rapidly growing prevalence is depicted below. This variant has been sequenced in multiple states in the U.S. and a dozen countries around the world. If it continues to expand its prevalence at the current pace it could become a dominant variant within the next couple of months.
Before we take a deeper look at the increasing pace of mutational changes in the body of the virus, the strategies COVID is using to evade innate immunity, and much more please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber to help support this work, today.
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Decoding COVID-19's Evolving Threat: A Deeper Look at the Increasing Mutational Changes in the Body of the Virus
The graph below highlights a troubling trend: mutations occurring deep within the body of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Unlike vaccines that often target the spike protein, these mutations raise new concerns. Notably, KP.2 exhibits a large number of mutations within the virus's body, suggesting that it might be evolving to evade T-cell immunity or other parts of our immune defenses that have been helping to protect people. Some mutations in the body of the virus might not have a direct advantage on their own. Instead, they may compensate for other mutations (e.g., in the spike protein) that could otherwise be detrimental to the virus's overall function.
This trend of the virus shifting more mutations away from the spike protein suggests it's feeling the pressure of our immune system and adapting. The fact that it continues to find ways to do this is highly concerning.
This underscores the crucial need for ongoing research and vigilance. Only by understanding this rapidly changing threat can we hope to stay ahead of it.
SARS-CoV-2 Strategies for Innate Immunity Evasion
Blocking Interferon Production & Response:
Interferons (IFNs) are crucial signaling proteins that coordinate antiviral responses. SARS-CoV-2 employs multiple proteins (e.g., NSP1, NSP3, ORF6, N) to impede IFN production and disrupt their signaling pathways. This prevents early viral clearance and blunts the body's rapid response.
Targeting Key Antiviral Pathways: Innate immune cells use sensors to detect viruses and trigger responses. SARS-CoV-2 proteins (like Nsp15) can directly interfere with these sensors and suppress the crucial antiviral pathways they activate.
Manipulating Host Cell Processes: The virus hijacks host cell machinery to support its replication. Some studies suggest SARS-CoV-2 manipulates cellular stress responses, autophagy (a recycling process), and pathways relating to inflammation. This disrupts the cell's ability to mount an effective innate immune response.
Sources:
Innate immune evasion strategies of SARS-CoV-2 | Nature Reviews Microbiology: [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-022-00839-1]
Insight into the mechanisms of coronaviruses evading host innate immunity - NCBI: [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9968664/]
The molecular mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 evading host antiviral innate immunity - Virology Journal: [https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12985-022-01783-5]
Spike Mutations: Growing Numbers and Evolving
Despite extensive mutations within the KP.2 variants body, the virus persists in modifying its spike protein to evade the antibodies produced by vaccines or previous infections.
Evolution and Immune Evasion: Impact on Vaccines
The evolution of COVID-19 variants poses a growing threat. Newer variants are increasingly better at evading immunity from prior infection and the vaccines targeting earlier strains. This raises the risk of reinfections, which could lead to both short-term and long-term health consequences while accelerating the virus's evolution. Multiple studies support this trend of immune evasion and suppression for the depicted variants. This excludes KP.2 because it is so new but we have little reason to believe that KP.2 won’t further reduce the short-term efficacy of the XBB.1.5 targeted vaccines or that induced by prior XBB infection or even a JN.1 infection. BA.4/BA.5 bivalent booster wasn't effective against the XBB variants, and they were a closer evolutionary distance than XBB.1.5 is from JN.1. (1)
A study published Dec 8, 2023, says, “JN.1 shows robust resistance to monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccine sera compared to BA.2.86." "Taken together, these results suggest that JN.1 is one of the most immune-evading variants to date."(2)
A study published December 15, 2023, says, “JN.1, by inheriting BA.2.86's antigenic diversity and acquisition of L455S, rapidly achieved extensive resistance across receptor binding domain class 1, 2, and 3 antibodies, and showed higher immune evasion compared with BA.2.86 and other resistant strains like HV.1 and JD.1·1” (3)
Another study published on March 7, 2024, says “an updated XBB.1.5 booster significantly increased titers against newer (XBB descendent) variants but not JN.1.”
“Novel variants continue to evade updated mRNA vaccines, demonstrating the need for novel approaches to adequately control SARS-CoV-2 transmission.” (4)
Lifting Mitigation Protections, Fueling Evolution: A Cause for Concern
This graph illustrates a concerning trend. As mitigation measures were relaxed in 2021 and 2022, we witnessed a clear increase in viral evolution. We have witnessed an explosion of new mutations and variants in 2023 and into 2024. This surge has the potential to continue at an even faster pace throughout 2024 and 2025 if we don't prioritize measures that slow transmission. Furthermore, treating and vaccination during widespread transmission can further escalate the virus’s evolution around the treatment and our immune response to the treatments. We are essentially training it to better evade and suppress our immune system.
The graphic effectively showcases how each year brings a broader spectrum of viral mutations and new variants. This highlights the importance of ongoing mitigation efforts to keep the virus in check and prevent the emergence of even more concerning variants.
Global-View
Globally, according to the W.H.O., JN.1 is the most reported VOI (now reported by 99 countries), accounting for 88.0% of sequences in week 4 of 2024 compared to 64.5% in week 52 of 2023.
JN.1.11.1 in the U.S.
BA.2.87.1: Not a threat yet, but could add mutations that give it an advantage, making it more dangerous.
BA.2.87.1- "Our results also emphasized that BA.2.87.1 cannot counteract Group A and B antibodies without mutations such as L455S, L455F, F456L, A475V and F486P, which are present in JN.1 and JD.1.1. Furthermore, in the absence of mutation at position R346 or K356, its exhibit weak capability of escape NAbs in the E1/E2.1 epitope group. These characteristics collectively suggest that BA.2.87.1 is not likely to outcompete current JN.1 and XBB subvariants without substantially further antigenic drift on the RBD,"
Long COVID's Devastating Impact: A Hidden Crisis
Long COVID Awareness Day was March 15, 2024. The vaccines are not preventing infections, and that means they aren’t preventing Long COVID. The latest studies on Paxlovid show that it does not reduce the incidence of Long COVID. There are no approved treatments for Long COVID.
The staggering number of COVID hospitalizations in January and February 2024 alone, conservatively, translates to the potential for 33,648 new Long COVID cases in the U.S. This is alarming, considering that even individuals with mild or no symptoms can develop this debilitating condition, including children.
These figures are likely just the tip of the iceberg. Unreported hospitalizations and undiagnosed Long COVID cases are not accounted for. Census Bureau data confirms this, showing a concerning rise of people dealing with Long COVID symptoms for over 3 months, increasing from 14% in October 2023 to over 17% in January 2024.
Most concerning is the devastating impact on the working and parental age demographic. In the 35-54 age group, over 20% suffer from Long COVID symptoms lasting more than three months. Over 35 million people in the U.S. are suffering from Long COVID, according to the February 2024 CDC update. The implications for individuals, families, and our overall economy are staggering.
Long COVID Demonstration, Washington, D.C. March 15, 2024 Watch this to gain insight into what others are experiencing and going through. Repeated infections with more immune evasive and suppressive variants increase the risks to everyone.
YouTube - Long COVID Demonstration, Washington DC
Global Perspective on Long COVID: A Shared Crisis
This crisis is not limited to the U.S. As of September 2023, Europe reported 36 million people facing chronic illness due to COVID-19 infections. The untold numbers of people around the world suffering from Long COVID may be well over 100 million. Repeated COVID-19 infections and Long COVID are not inevitable, they are preventable.
TACT...Great article today. The "striking evolution" of this virus is correct. It may be picking up some especially nasty traits from its cousin MERS. Some of the newer mutations in the non-structural proteins of the virus may allow for the creation of double membrane vesicles (DMV). These little nasties are essentially virus factories that hide out from the immune system. The immune system can't kill what it can't see. Can you say persistence?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9287701/
Regarding the XBB monovalent vaccine, some research claims it does have some efficacy against the JN.1 strain, but this is clearly a game of Whack-A-Mole.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1931312824000180?via%3Dihub
And tell your kids to eat their leeks.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354224000640
Thank you and as I have written before there is very, very, very little to none scientifc understanding of this virus being explained in our K-12 US schools and hence even less mitigation. The CDC and state and city health departments are guilty of criminal malfeasance by this point as they have facilitated the reinfections of tens of millions of students and ed staff in schools and in homes with SARSCov2. I would be remiss if I didn't include the sell-out teacher union millionaire misleaders who have betrayed their members & students for their serving the interests of the DNC and its corporate donors above the interest of their union teacher members of which I am one. We must arouse the rank & file teacher members about the growing LONG Covid crisis and the virus's continuing retooling of new variants if transmission isn't greatly reduced especially in schools.