Arcturus (XBB.1.16): 400% Increase in Deaths, 205% Increase in Cases in India. Spreads to 10 U.S. States and 14 Countries.

Nearly 200% Growth Advantage over XBB.1.5

Mar 26, 2023

Arcturus (XBB.1.16) is being reported in at least 10 U.S. states and 14 countries but it has likely already spread much further. We are seeing exponential growth spreading out from Maharashtra, the epicenter of XBB.1.16 in India. It appears to be tearing down the immunity wall with multiple new mutations. This is a highly contagious variant, capable of evading antibodies, suppressing the immune system, and persisting in viral reservoirs outside the reach of the immune system just like XBB.1.5 however, this variant clearly has advantages that XBB.1.5 doesn’t have. We will get into more detail on what those advantages are and how that may impact health and longevity below.

“Wear masks in crowded and closed spaces, avoid overcrowding and get tested if they develop respiratory symptoms”

This is the message from the Indian health secretary, Rajesh Bhushan and health research secretary, Rajiv Bahl. They put out a joint letter sent out to the states on Saturday. India is the epicenter of where XBB.1.16 is spreading at an exponential rate but because the data collecting has declined so much, it becomes hard to pinpoint where it originated or how fast it is spreading in other places. This doesn’t leave us completely blind but it would be much safer to have maintained the data collecting.

We will use the data that is available to provide some insight into how this variant may have gained its significant growth advantage and why it is likely more dangerous. To be clear, more dangerous, does not always imply worse symptoms, hospitalizations, or deaths. It may manifest in many people with fewer or no symptoms, but it is still capable of wreaking havoc on people's bodies.

The COVID Situation Simplified

Ten Things to Know

“Infections with fewer symptoms or no symptoms may not necessarily carry fewer risks, they may increase them.”

“The Union health ministry on Saturday asked all states to urge people to wear masks in crowded and closed spaces, avoid overcrowding and get tested if they develop respiratory symptoms, amid a rise in Covid-19 infections since mid-February.”

In mid-February, India began detecting cases in the states with the highest number of cases. The first case sequenced in the United States occurred on February 26th, in New Jersey. England displays two cases from February 12th and February 17th. According to the ZOE health study, which is still being published in the United Kingdom, new cases began to increase again in mid-March, which is consistent with the XBB.1.16 variant.

In the United States, the first cases were reported in Florida, Texas, Washington, Illinois, New York, and California during the second week of March. This means that the cases arrived in the United States at least a few weeks ago. Because the data is limited, we can't tell which mutations it had or if it acquired a new mutation or two in India, making it more infectious. We do know that due to the limited reporting, there has been a significant increase in cases and deaths in India, which should alert us to pay close attention to what is happening in all of the other places where it has been reported.

This should also signal to public health that it is time to start telling people to wear quality N-95 or KN-95 masks on public transportation, when inside any public space, and to avoid crowded places, which was demonstrated by India's health secretary.

"The health ministry asked states to increase their counts of Covid-19 tests, citing concerns that current testing levels in some states are "insufficient" compared to World Health Organization standards that prescribe 140 tests per million population," according to The Telegraph.

“The health ministry has also asked states to reorient frontline health workers for early diagnosis and treatment of respiratory infections, take stock of hospital preparedness including human resources, drugs, beds, including intensive care unit beds, medical equipment and medical oxygen.”

This is a wise move, and every country's public health should advise frontline healthcare workers and hospital administrators on it. Instead of waiting until a known threat overwhelms us, they should update guidance for schools and the general public. The threat has arrived, and we should begin preparing to mitigate it as soon as possible. As more data becomes available, we will be able to advise the general public; however, governors, mayors, state and county public health officials, hospital administrators, and school boards should be made aware of the situation and put on alert. The time has come to act.

Evolutionary Advantage of Arcturus (XBB.1.16)

Arcturus (XBB.1.16) is a lineage with 5 additional mutations E180V, K478R, and S486P, ORF9b:I5T and ORF9b:N55S. XBB.1.5 doesn’t have these mutations in ORFb.

How could mutations in ORF9b give Arcturus an advantage?

This study concludes that their findings “unveil the innate immunosuppression by ORF9b.”

A study published in May 2021 says, “The results showed that SARS-CoV-2 ORF9b negatively regulates antiviral immunity and thus facilitates viral replication.”

We don’t know the precise impact of the mutations in this variant but we do know that XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 evaded antibodies from prior infections, the bivalent booster, and the monoclonal antibody treatments. That has left us dependent on T-cells to protect us. In order for T-cells to protect us, the virus must infect a cell before T-cells act to kill the virus infected cell. This is accelerating aging at the cellular level with each new infection.

“How does XBB.1.16 have such an advantage over XBB.1.5, a variant that has already successfully defeated antibodies?”

There are a few options. It could bind to cells stronger however ACE-2 binding is lower in XBB.1.16 compared to XBB.1.9.2 and XBB.1.5 so this isn’t the advantage.

XBB.1.16 XBB.1.9.2 XBB.1.5

ACE2 binding vs BA.2: 0.866 / 0.917 / 1.012

Logistical growth, mutational fitness, ace2 binding — XBB.1.16, XBB.1.9.2, and XBB.1.5 comparison

XBB.1.16 may be able to replicate faster but XBB variants are already replicating very fast. We don’t have evidence showing whether it is or isn’t yet. The third possibility is the one most likely to be true. XBB.1.16 may be more capable of evading T-cells, the last line of defense for our immune system.

Arcturus (XBB.1.16) appears to be improving at interrupting the signal sent by an infected cell to the T-cell, making it more difficult for T-cells to target infected cells. In other words, T-cells may have a more difficult time detecting when a cell is infected. If T-cells miss more infected cells, COVID will have more time to replicate, infiltrate, and persist in areas where T-cells cannot reach it. Many more people will struggle to clear the virus, resulting in more infections, ongoing inflammation, and the associated autoimmune disorders, musculoskeletal, neurological, cognitive, and vascular dysfunction.

If this variant or future variants find that way to more efficiently suppress or infect T-cells, the overall toll on our collective physical, mental, and economic health will be significant. We should not take these changes as insignificant because if they are significant, we will not be able to act fast enough to protect millions of people from long term disability, shortened lifespans and death.

We have already failed tens of millions of people who are suffering from the long-term effects of COVID, known as Long COVID, as well as millions who have died. This pandemic is far from over. COVID is constantly mutating in order to gain an advantage over another variant. It has a high rate of evolution. It hasn't stopped mutating in a more aggressive direction and hasn't found its comfort zone, as everyone wishes. It is mutating and evolving at a faster rate than ever before, so it has trillions of chances to find a more efficient path, and once one variant does, it takes a few weeks to a few months to travel to every country on Earth, with a few exceptions. Countries with the most unrestricted international travel are the biggest recipients and super-spreaders of each new variant with an advantage.

XBB.1.16 has caused a 205% increase in cases and a more alarming, 400% increase in deaths in India over the past 14 days.

From the March 23, 2023 update, “Vipin M Vashishtha, the former convenor of the Indian Academy of Pediatrics and a consultant pediatrician at the Mangla Hospital and Research Centre, Bijnor., is saying that “All eyes should be on India.”

“If XBB.1.16 aka #Arcturus could succeed to wade through the ‘sturdy’ population immunity of Indians that successfully resisted the onslaught of variants like BA.2.75, BA.5, BQs, XBB.1.5, then the whole world must be seriously worried!”

Arcturus is spreading at the estimated growth advantage over XBB.1.5, and the number of people hospitalized and dying is increasing at an exponential rate. We must keep in mind that H3N2 flu and adenovirus are circulating in India. Co-infections can exacerbate symptoms, potentially adding fuel to the fire.

Norovirus, adenovirus, parainfluenza type 3, human metapneumovirus, and the common cold coronavirus are all circulating at levels similar to or higher than last year at this time in the United States. Co-infections will undoubtedly affect some people. The question is how well hospitals will mitigate the spread of respiratory viruses via airborne viruses. How well will schools prevent the spread of these viruses?

No, this is not cause for alarm, but it is reason to warn public health, hospitals, schools, and the general public about the "real potential" of a new variant that can overcome prior immunity and potentially jeopardize people's and the economy's short and long-term health.

Consider it like preparing for a category 3 hurricane that is spinning offshore, or in this case, over every country on the planet. We don't know whether it will be downgraded to a category 2 hurricane or upgraded to a category 5, but forecasts predict increasing intensity. We don't know which way it will turn, but those who don't prepare and are caught off guard when it suddenly turns in their direction suffer the most. Because the storm is directly above us, any increase in intensity will be felt quickly. Delaying action will result in many more deaths and unnecessary pain and suffering for millions of people.

Let us hope and pray that the human immune system is capable of countering COVID's maneuvers, but the young and old will undoubtedly suffer more than anyone else if it becomes more severe. Take extra precautions to protect expectant mothers and fathers, infants, the immunocompromised, and anyone over the age of 50. This disease has dealt the most severe blows to these age groups, often resulting in death.

To protect patients, hospitals must use high-quality N-95 masks. We know from all of the data that anything less than an N-95 or similar type mask is negligent. A hospital may be held liable for any resulting harm if it fails to take reasonable steps to prevent the spread of infectious diseases, such as failing to implement proper infection control measures or failing to adequately screen patients. COVID is the most contagious airborne virus in modern human history, and it necessitates the use of an N-95 or similar type mask to limit transmission. Second, hospitals are responsible for providing a safe and sanitary environment for both patients and staff. If a hospital fails to implement appropriate infection control measures, they may be held liable for any harm that results.

This is not a time to let our guard down. This the time to prepare for the next surge, which we can confidently predict will occur at some point in the near future, if not the very near future. We need to keep a close eye on the situation to see how far this variant can go in suppressing our immune system, infecting our organs, including the brain, and causing long-term damage to all of us. We need to increase surveillance of new variants and the level of prevalence through the testing and sequencing of wastewater and new voluntary surveillance reports, like the ZOE health study.

We should be especially concerned about the children who do not have adequate protection. Without adequate monitoring, this could wreak havoc on schools and homes long before we intervene. This is not an acceptable situation. We should have learned from our mistakes, applied what we knew, and become better prepared. Instead, there is less surveillance and almost no treatment for either the initial infection or Long COVID. The HVAC systems have not been upgraded. We do not have any new vaccines. We are not prepared. The public health crisis has not been resolved. We must ensure that our representatives and the President are aware of this.

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